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Top 10 Best FPL 2023/24 Picks

There has been a tonne of discussion, analysis and even guessing in the FPL community over the last several weeks.

Managers have been breaking down fixtures, predicting team lineups, and exploring every stat in the book just to decide between two evenly-matched players.

But let’s put that aside for the moment and let us keep it simple for you.

Here are the outright top 10 best picks for FPL 2023/24.

10. Gabriel Magalhaes

Gabriel emerges as a top-tier choice in Arsenal’s defense, with a remarkable 29.2 points per million – second only to Trippier’s 30.5.

He led Arsenal’s outfield minutes (3,409) last season while also posing a significant threat upfront (xG – 5.7, highest among defenders).

His influence goes beyond these numbers, having accumulated 15 bonus points (6th among defenders) and 723 BPS (4th in defenders).

Furthermore, Arsenal has a promising fixture lineup, averaging at 2.2 FDR over the first 5 games.

With the previous season’s stats and Arsenal’s stellar fixtures, Gabriel is undoubtedly a safe defensive option.

9. John Stones

As the focal point of Guardiola’s tactical twist, Stone is set for significant minutes and returns, making him an exciting asset.

Last season, Man City conceded the fewest goals (33) and had the lowest xGA (32.1). Now, with the addition of Gvardiol, their defense is even stronger.

It won’t be surprising if City manages to uplift their CS numbers from last season to anywhere in the 15-20 range.

Last campaign, Stones averaged an impressive 4.42 points/start. This was alongside 2 goals, 2 assists, and an xGI of 2.00.

Fixture wise, City are looking good with an average FDR of 2.6 in their first 5 games.

These include games against newly promoted clubs Burnley and Sheffield United.

8. Mohamed Salah

Salah’s average FPL points in the last 6 seasons is 255 – a feat filled with record-breaking performances in 2017/18 (303 points), 2018/19 (259 points), and 2021/22 (265 points).

To provide context, in the past 6 seasons, only Haaland’s 272 and Kane’s 263 exceed Salah’s average.

At the time of writing, Salah’s ownership stands at 25%, a number likely to rise given the late influx of managers.

While he does comes at an expensive price tag of £12.5m, his track record and consistency make him an irresistible choice.

Liverpool face Chelsea (a), Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (a), Aston Villa (H), and Wolves (a) in the first 5 fixtures. (Average FDR – 2.8)

Not having Salah in GW2 when they face Bournemouth (H) could result in an excrutiating watch.

7. Marcus Rashford

The upcoming season starts favorably for United, facing a not-so-ready Wolves side & Nottingham Forest in GW3 – both at home.

This brings us to Rashford’s dominance at home. He scored 13 out of his 17 goals last season at Old Trafford.

While Rashford started as a £6.5m player last season, his new price tag of £9.0m is perfectly reasonable, some would even argue too cheap.

He finished the season with 205 points (5th most), 24 G/A, and 18.13 xGI in 32 starts.

Despite the price increase from £6.5m, he’s primed for another terrific season.

As per our points predictor, Rashford is expected to score the most points in GW1, so his 47% isn’t surprising.

6. Bruno Fernandes

Bruno Fernandes is arguably the most underpriced player in FPL this season at £8.5m.

Let’s look at some of his underlying numbers from the 2022/23 season:

  • Third-highest xA (10.7)
  • Led with 119 key passes and 219 shot-creating actions, 32 big chances created – 9 assists
  • 8 goals, 6th highest shots (90) in the league
  • 2nd-highest in progressive passes (263)
  • Average of 3,176 minutes played in the past 3 seasons

Accumulating 176 points, 17 G/A, 20.03 xGI, and being the designated penalty taker for Man Utd cements his spot as one of the best picks in FPL this season.

Moreover, as discussed above, United’s early fixtures look favorable.

5. Trent Alexander-Arnold

In the past season, TAA showcased his prowess as the tied-2nd highest scoring defender (156), securing 2nd place in bonus points and leading with the most goal involvements (13).

His 11 assists (7th most) and the 4th highest xA (9.3) further underlines his attacking threat.

Trent had 239 passes into the final third last season (2nd most), only behind Rodri’s 265.

Liverpool’s opening fixtures are enticing. They face Bournemouth (H), Wolves (a), West Ham (H), Everton (H), Nottingham Forest (H), and Luton (a) in their first 11 games.

Given Trent’s hybrid role in Liverpool’s current system and favorable fixtures, he stands out as a great starter pick despite his perceived expensive £8.0m tag.

4. Pervis Estupinan

Last season with 8 G/A (joint 4th in defenders), Estupinan solidified his reputation as a top-value defender.

The Ecuadorian, priced at just £5.0m, is a stand out pick.

Averaging 3.7 points per match last season, his consistency stands out.

Remarkably, he’s owned by 52% of managers, making him the most-owned defender and third most owned player in the game.

Here are some of his stats from the 2022/23 season:

  • 10 clean sheets, 128 points (10th in defenders)
  • xGI (5.68) which he outperformed, showcasing his attacking flair
  • BP – 15 (joint 6th in defenders)
  • 18 shots in the box, 462 final 3rd passes, and 19 successful crosses into the box (7th most)

What makes Estupinan such an essential pick though, are Brighton’s fixtures.

They have an average FDR of 2 in their first 3 games, facing Luton, Wolves, and West Ham.

3. Kaoru Mitoma

Let’s start by looking at some of Mitoma’s (and Brighton’s) key statistics from last season:

  • Brighton scored 72 goals last season (4th) and had a strong xG of 73.3 (2nd)
  • Mitoma delivered 7 goals, 9 assists, and an xGI of 13.22 in just 24 starts
  • He ranked 3rd in the league for progressive carries (143), trailing only Saka and Grealish

Brighton are a team you want an attacking asset for and Mitoma fits this perfectly.

Unlike a lot of his teammates, his minutes are fairly secure and he will almost certainly start.

Like Estupinan, a lot of Mitoma’s appeal come from Brighton’s stellar fixtures.

At £6.5m, a certain start, and a home fixture against the favourites to get relegated, he’s a hard player to ignore going into GW1.

2. Bukayo Saka

Scoring 14 goals and accumulating 12 assists from 17.46 xGI, Saka was the highest goal contributor for the Gunners last season.

His impact last season for Arsenal is shown by his minutes to xGI – 277 compared to Odegaard’s 321 and Martinelli’s 305.

Arsenal also boast great fixtures to start the season (tied-best average FDR for the first 4 games).

As a result, Saka is currently owned by 57% of managers, justifiably so, making him the most-picked midfielder (and 2nd most picked overall).

He is currently predicted to score 6.1 points in GW1 (4th most).

Saka is playing for one of the most free-flowing attacking teams in the league, is in his prime, on penalties and guaranteed minutes – it’s an easy decision to pick him.

1. Erling Haaland

Haaland was always going to be number one on a list of best players to pick in FPL, despite his £14.0m price tag.

An astounding 89% of FPL managers agree having selected him at the time of writing (an FPL record).

272 points, an unmatched record of 36 goals, 9 assists, and an xGI of 31.65 – the numbers speak for themselves.

And to add that, he averaged a staggering 7.8 points per match last season (the most).

He finds himself ranked 6th among the highest scoring FPL players in history (in a given season).

Given these incredible stats, Haaland is a captaincy contender for every game, regardless of the fixture.

And if for some reason you’re on the fence about him, City start their campaign with fixtures against newly promoted Burnley and Sheffield United in their opening three matches.

The only reason to not pick Haaland is to go against the 89% of managers who have and hope he starts the season poorly!