Fantasy Football Manager – Gameweek 11 – FPL 2018/19

Fantasy Football Manager Gameweek 11

Fantasy Football Manager

Follow fantasy football managers, Sup and Kash, as they try to climb the rankings in Fantasy Premier League. They share their thoughts on the previous gameweek, what to expect from the upcoming gameweeks, as well as the ups and downs of their own teams. Here are the views of fantasy football manager gameweek 11.

Fantasy Football Manager – Sup

Gameweek 10 Team

Here is how my team finished in Gameweek 10.

Sup - GW10 Points

Season Through Gameweek 10

Points Scored- 71| Global Average- 58| Total Points- 635| Overall Rank (OR) – 63.8k| Green arrow- ~6k| Team Value- 102.7m

Season Through Gameweek 10 - Sup

Team Review Through Gameweek 10

My GW10 was highlighted by a small green arrow of 6k. As long as this green arrows are coming I am more than happy. However, this gameweek didn’t start well for me despite owning Sadio Mane and Ryan Fraser. Most of the managers in my mini-league owned Mo Salah ©, Callum Wilson and Roberto Pereyra. Therefore whilst I scored plenty of points my opposition out-scored me. Captaining Eden Hazard despite all the uncertainties over his back pain was in hindsight a reckless thing to do. Nonetheless, I was lucky enough that he was not even in the gameweek squad which ensured 30 points from my vice-captain, Sadio Mane.

What Happened

The gameweek started with a bang, with Sadio Mane coming back to form scoring a brace against Cardiff accompanied by two assists from Ryan Fraser. Respectively they returned a handsome 15 and 11 points. Elsewhere, there were injuries and rotations throughout my squad. Other than missing out on Eden Hazard, Andrew Robertson gets the first rest of the season which was long overdue, and Marko Arnautovic also missed the gameweek squad due to stomach problems. My free transfer of Wilfred Zaha to Marko Arnautovic was thus wasted costing me 5 points with a Zaha assist to rub salt in the wound. Dale Stephens and Aaron Wan Bissaka were auto-subbed in with a combined contribution of 4 points. Morgan Schneiderlin as expected didn’t get a start which meant I had just 10 players this gameweek. Kieran Trippier, Matt Doherty, Sergio Aguero, Aleksandar Mitrovic all blanked with returns of 2 points or less. Ederson Moraes’ clean sheet along with two bonus points and Marco Alonso’s clean sheet with the assist and 3 bonus points ensured 71 for the gameweek and 13 more than the average.

Lessons Learnt From Gameweek 10

  • Even though Marko Arnautovic has an excellent run of fixtures, he will disappoint his owners occasionally with the persisting knee disturbance as confirmed by West Ham manager, Manuel Pellegrini
  • Even the best performing most consistent players can be rested, Andrew Robertson
  • With the busy festive schedule coming, it is necessary to have a strong bench to cover the injuries and rotation risks

Gameweek 11 Plans

Gameweek 11 Transfer

I discussed last week that I am planning to transfer in Benjamin Mendy for Aaron Wan Bissaka in GW11. However, I already have Man City defensive cover in the form of Ederson Moraes. In addition, this transfer would mean some benching headaches which I have intentionally avoided so far this season. I could also get Mendy for Kieran Trippier but for the fixture this gameweek, it’s more of a luxury transfer than a necessary one. Instead, I am thinking of carrying over the transfer so that I have two free transfers for GW12 as Liverpool will be facing Fulham. Consequently, not having Mo Salah to captain is too big of a risk. Here is my team for GW11.

Who To Pick

Going through the team, the players with difficult fixtures are Andrew Robertson and Sadio Mane against Arsenal (A), Matt Doherty against Tottenham Hotspur (H) and Ryan Fraser against Manchester United (H).

Andrew Robertson: His clean sheet likeliness is less than usual this week (25%). However, it is really difficult to bench him due to his attacking threat. He has 2 assists and 4 big chances created in 10 gameweeks.

Sadio Mane: With 6 goals already this season and the fact he is right back on form, he is an automatic choice in the starting eleven. This, coupled with the leaky defence of Arsenal conceding 13 goals already and just 2 clean sheets means there is a little doubt when starting Liverpool players.

Matt Doherty: Similar to Andrew Robertson, his clean sheet probability (25%) is also low this GW. Nevertheless, his runs into the box make him an immense attacking threat. He has already scored a goal and 2 assists this season along with 4 clean sheets. Apart from that, he has taken 18 shots with 14 of them from inside the penalty box and 10 shots on target. Tottenham on the other hand, are missing Jan Vertonghen which increases their vulnerability at the back.

Ryan Fraser: He has created 11 big chances this season with 5 of them as assists and has also scored 3 goals. His 14 shots so far, 5 being on target, and 8 from the penalty area are indicators of his current form. His stats at home are impressive as he scored all his goals at the Vitality Stadium. Man Utd are also very vulnerable defensively with just 1 clean sheet this season. They have conceded 17 goals, 9 of those away from home. After analysing all these statistics, I decided it makes more sense to start all four of them despite having tough fixtures.

Final Verdict: Carryover over the transfer.

Captaincy

The top captaincy options for my team this GW are Sergio Aguero (Southampton H) and Eden Hazard (Crystal Palace H). There is nothing much to choose between them, so I went through a thorough form and fixture analysis to come to the final decision.

Form Analysis – Sergio Aguero vs. Eden Hazard
Minutes played: 719 vs. 667
Goals: 6 vs. 7
Goals at Home: 5 vs. 5
Assists: 2 vs. 2
Big Chances: 2 vs. 6
Shots: 47 vs. 27
Shots on Target: 16 vs. 11
Accuracy: 34% vs. 41%
Shots from Box: 32 vs. 25
xG: 0.87 vs. 0.56
xA: 0.25 vs. 0.48
Bonus Earned: 6 vs. 13

5 of the key performance indices are in favour of Sergio Aguero, while 5 others in favour of Eden Hazard. The xPoints attacking for the two are 4.23 and 4.24 respectively. Even after all these form analyses, there is little to choose between the two.

Fixture Analysis – Southampton vs. Crystal Palace
Clean Sheets: 4 vs. 3
Clean Sheets Away: 2 vs. 2
Recent Form CS (Last 2): 2 vs. 0
Goals Conceded: 14 vs. 13
Goals Conceded Away: 7 vs. 6
CS Probability: 5% vs. 9%

After looking at the fixture analysis, it is quite difficult to differentiate between Southampton and Crystal Palace. Sergio Aguero does have a slight edge though. In addition to this, Aguero’s consistency at home combined with Hazard’s injury uncertainty has led to put the armband on the Man City front man. Nevertheless, I will think about this more and will probably take a late decision. One thing for sure, they are both expected to haul big at home and owning both of them makes me feel safer for this GW.

Fantasy Football Manager – Kash

Gameweek 10 Team

Here is how my team finished in Gameweek 10.

Kash - GW10 Points

Season Through Gameweek 10

Points Scored- 100| Global Average- 58| Total Points- 604| Overall Rank (OR) – 206k| Green arrow- 418k| Team Value- 102.8m

Season Through Gameweek 10 - Kash

Team Review Through Gameweek 10

GW10 was an outstanding gameweek in every aspect. It was a long wait for my first ever 100-haul in FPL and it took me 48 game weeks and 2 seasons to achieve it. Good things come to those who wait! All the more satisfying were major contributions from players whom I have trusted in my team despite recent poor form, particularly Sadio Mane. I always knew the Senegalese is a long term pick when I got him in my wildcard and he finally delivered a mega haul with maximum bonus points supporting his sublime brace against a helpless Cardiff. Apart from him, telling contributions came from Ryan Fraser, Callum Wilson and Marcos Alonso, all returning double-digit hauls. The Bournemouth duo has been excellent value-for-money buys for me. Moreover they have increased my team value. Elsewhere, Richarlison, too chipped in with an assist.

Captain Choice Pays Off

The most satisfying part of Gameweek 10 was provided by Mohamed Salah, who returned to my team for the first time since GW2. As I discussed in our earlier edition, I was on the lookout for a captain. I was leaning towards Hazard all week but opted for Salah at the last second. Of course this turned out to be an excellent decision. While Hazard failed to recover from the back injury and didn’t feature in the gameweek squad, Salah put on a clinic and on top of opening the scoring, assisted both goals for Mane. No gameweek is perfect however and this was proven with my 2nd transfer, Marko Arnautovic who missed out with a reported illness. Similar frustration occurred with Andrew Robertson as he was rested by Jurgen Klopp. This double blow wasn’t too costly as Liverpool failed to keep the clean sheet the bookmakers had expected them to.

Flying Under The Radar

A vitally important member of my team is Ederson Moraes. Apart from being my essential Manchester City defensive cover, he is proving to be a set-and-forget option in my team. His haul of 2 bonus points came despite making just one save in the match. This is a dream for Fantasy Premier League managers. He and Man City have kept clean sheets in 70% of their Premier League matches this season.

Gameweek 11 Plans

Transfers

My transfer plans for GW11 are likely to circulate around Eden Hazard, the vital cog missing in my squad. Nearing full fitness, he is more than likely to feature this Sunday in the home fixture against Crystal Palace. Now appears to be an ideal entry point with back to back home games awaiting before the international break. Hazard has had imperious home form this season with 5 out of 7 goals coming at home including a brilliant hat-trick against Cardiff in GW4. But amidst all the glitter, there’s the doubt regarding his gametime this weekend and the uncertainty has been fueled by the Chelsea Manager. Maurizio Sarri stated his press conference that his game time may be restricted to 40-45 minutes. He may well start but to accommodate him I will have to take a point hit and sacrifice Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Serbian hasn’t been in his early-season goalscoring form as of late. A fixture against a struggling Huddersfield, who have conceded an average of 2.1 goals per match, could be the game to revitalize him. As a result I am sticking with the Serb and will hold fire on Hazard this week.

Gameweek 11 Team

Here is my likely Gameweek 11 team:

Gameweek 11 Team - Kash

The team doesn’t look bad for this week. I am banking on Liverpool taking advantage of a supposedly leaky Arsenal defence. The form of Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane only bolsters my confidence in this fixture. Another couple of double-ups I have are Bournemouth attack and Wolves defence. I can spread the risk by playing one of each but currently I am keen to rely on the Bournemouth attack even against a slightly improving Manchester United. My reasons for this are as follows:

  • Bournemouth has been exceptional in attack this season and that has reflected in their table position as well. They sit at 6th with a 1 point advantage over Watford and a 3 point lead over Manchester United. They will have plenty of motivation to solidify their newly-found premium status in the table against a side who are chasing them and hot on their heels.
  • Bournemouth are unbeaten at home this season and in the 5 matches they have played at home so far (Cardiff, Everton, Leicester, Crystal Palace and Southampton) they have scored 10 goals in them. Wilson and Fraser have been involved in all of them.
  • Manchester United have been poor in defence this season. They have conceded 9 goals away from home which have included two matches where opponents like West Ham and Brighton have scored three.
  • Wilson is expected to be on penalty duty like last weekend as Joshua King is ruled out.

While I don’t have much qualms about benching Bennett, Doherty is capable of attacking returns even against Tottenham. The diminished chance of a clean sheet makes the decision clear to me to chose either of Fraser/Wilson over Doherty this week as clean sheets remain are the most important role of a defender in FPL.

Captaincy

Without Sergio Aguero in my team, Mohamed Salah is at the forefront of my captain options this week. Despite Liverpool facing Arsenal who have been unbeaten in their last 8 league games, Salah will more than likely get the armband for the following reasons:

  • 2 goals and 2 assists in his last two league games, both home and away.
  • Had a brace in Liverpool’s most recent Champions League match.
  • The new centre forward role has made him more prone to score.
  • With 17 shots on target and 4 big chances created, the stats suggest he is on par with his incredible season from last year.
  • Arsenal’s fullback duo of Bellerin and Monreal could miss out this weekend and will provide of plenty of space for the likes of Robertson and Trent Alexander Arnold/Joe Gomez to further Liverpool’s attack.
  • Arsenal have conceded an average of 1.3 goals a game this season.

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