FPL Points Predictor
In its simplest form, the aim of Fantasy Premier League is to get the most points, which is why we have created this FREE FPL points predictor table.
Given the amount of work and research that has gone into the formula, we are confident that this points predictor is the most accurate on the web. And it’s absolutely free.
Point predictions are updated throughout the week for the upcoming gameweek. They are based on our Premier League clean sheet odds page, goalscorer and assist odds, and various other factors.
Fantasy Premier League Points Predictor
Updated for GW4 · 5 September at 03:17
| Pos | Start | Fixtures | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | João Pedro | FWD | £7.7m | 72.2% | 90% | HUL(H) | |
| Cole Palmer | MID | £9.6m | 21.8% | 90% | HUL(H) | |
| Morgan Rogers | MID | £7.6m | 28.0% | 90% | HUL(H) | |
 | Erling Haaland | FWD | £15.5m | 71.2% | 90% | MUN(A) | |
 | Alexander Isak | FWD | £9.1m | 20.1% | 90% | FUL(H) | |
 | Bukayo Saka | MID | £9.5m | 11.4% | 90% | SUN(A) | |
| Maxence Lacroix | DEF | £6.0m | 8.2% | 90% | HUL(H) | |
| Antoine Semenyo | MID | £8.4m | 18.2% | 90% | MUN(A) | |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | MID | £7.0m | 38.7% | 90% | FUL(H) | |
| Cody Gakpo | MID | £7.2m | 13.9% | 80% | FUL(H) |
Generally, the table will be ready for the upcoming gameweek at least three days before the deadline. The status above is always accurate, because it reads directly from the data behind the table.
You can forecast points for every player for the upcoming gameweek and up to six gameweeks into the future using the slider above the table.
The forecasts use a detailed formula to predict how many points every player in the Premier League will return in a given gameweek, including defensive contribution points.
These projected points can assume the player is starting, or they can take into account a player’s likelihood of starting. Use the ‘Assume Starting’ checkbox to switch between the two.
You can also filter players by club, position, price and ownership.
The ‘Start %’ column is the likelihood that a player starts for the upcoming gameweek only. Those figures come from our Fantasy Premier League team news page. We don’t give any outfield player more than a 90% chance of starting.
Read More: All Our FREE Fantasy Premier League Data Tools
Predicted points often change slightly through the week as team news firms up and odds move.
How the forecast works
For the upcoming gameweek, a player’s chance of scoring comes straight from the anytime goalscorer price, and his chance of assisting from the same price adjusted by how much he creates relative to how much he scores. A player equally likely to do either carries the same figure for both.
Further ahead there are no published prices, so the model works out what share of his team’s goals each player accounts for, and applies that share to what we expect his side to score in the new fixture. Expected goals for a fixture come from our own attack and defence ratings for the two clubs — how many a side tends to score, and how many their opponent tends to concede.
That is deliberately not the same as asking who is likely to win. A team that wins by defending and a team that wins by scoring are worth very different things to a forward, and the difference does not show up in a win probability.
Those per-gameweek chances are then run through FPL’s own scoring, position by position, including appearance points, clean sheets, goals conceded, bonus, cards and defensive contribution.
Limitations of the model
- Players with a blank in the upcoming gameweek show zero points unless you look further ahead with the slider.
- Suspended and injured players are excluded for the gameweeks they are unavailable for.
- Odds are only available a gameweek or two ahead. Beyond that we estimate each fixture from our own fixture difficulty ratings, and any total including an estimated gameweek is marked with an asterisk.
- The further ahead you look, the more of the projection rests on those estimates rather than on published prices. Six gameweeks out, all of it does.
- No player is given more than a 95% chance of scoring or assisting in a single fixture, however kind the fixture.
- The model prices fixtures, not form or minutes beyond the starting likelihood. A player in poor touch with an easy run will still project well.