Aston Villa sold Jack Grealish to Manchester City for a record-breaking £100 million last summer.
Grealish didn’t quite reach the heights for Man City last season, finishing with just three goals and three assists in the Premier League.
This is a drop from his last season at Villa, where he returned 6 goals and 10 assists.
Grealish had an xG of 5.79 and an xA of 5.67, indicating that he was unlucky not to have had more returns. Essentially, that data indicates he should have had six goals and six assists.
Adjusting to Pep’s Tactics
Adjusting to the expectations of playing for Pep Guardiola can be difficult for almost any player.
Many players require an “adjustment” year to adapt to playing in Pep’s complex tactical system.
For example, Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane, and Riyad Mahrez all struggled in their first season under Pep.
| Player | Goals per 90 Improvement in Second Season Under Pep | Assists per 90 Improvement in Second Season Under Pep |
|---|---|---|
| Raheem Sterling | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| Riyad Mahrez | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Leroy Sane | 0.12 | 0.41 |
We can see in the cases of all three players, that their attacking output increased significantly in their second season under Pep’s management. It would be expected that Grealish should follow a similar pattern.
With the addition of Erling Haaland, Grealish will have more possibilities for assists next season.
Grealish at Aston Villa
Grealish was a star performer in the 20/21 season for Aston Villa. If he can regain that form, £7.0m will be a huge bargain.
Grealish created the second-most chances per 90 minutes for Aston Villa in the 20/21 season, trailing only De Bruyne.
The former Villa captain also had the most carries into the penalty area (80), which was 18 more than second place Raheem Sterling, despite only playing 26 games.
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Grealish was also the most fouled player in the 2020/21 season by some distance, while also being the most fouled player in the final third.
These statistics suggest that Grealish had a significant impact on Villa’s attacking play.
With his chance creation and ball carries, the play at Aston Villa centred around him; it is understandable that transitioning from being the talisman at Villa, to playing in a team of superstars would be difficult.
Rotation
Grealish was actually one of Pep’s preferred starting attackers last season.
He started 63% of matches when fully fit. He was mainly rotated with Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden for the left-wing spot.
Sterling and Gabriel Jesus have both departed City for Chelsea and Arsenal, respectively. This eliminates two potential competitors for Grealish’s spot in the team.
Last season, Foden primarily operated off the left and as a false-nine, but it is speculated that Foden would prefer to play off the right.
This would provide Grealish with the opportunity to somewhat nail down that position, potentially granting him more game time as the favoured left winger in 2022/23.
Fixtures – Promoted Teams at Home
- GW1 – West Ham (a)
- GW2 – Bournemouth (H)
- GW3 – Newcastle (a)
- GW4 – Crystal Palace (H)
- GW5 – Nottingham Forest (H)
- GW6 – Aston Villa (a)
Manchester City couldn’t have wished for a better start to the season.
In their first six games, they will meet newly promoted Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. This favourable schedule allows Grealish a great opportunity to get off to a strong start.
Pick Grealish?
Grealish appears to be on track for a much stronger second season at City, with a favourable set of fixtures.
The best strategy looks to be to wait and see on Grealish until we know how City set up tactically and if Grealish starts strongly.
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At a generous price of just £7.0m, many may opt for Grealish as a cheaper alternative to Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez.
It’s simple, if Grealish becomes a regular starter, he’s at a price that cannot be ignored.