It’s the last gameweek of the season so it’s now or never for those ranks which will be cemented in your team’s FPL history.
Expect GW38 to be a goal fest. Last season, an average of 2.85 goals were scored per game and this shot up to 3.9 for the final round of fixtures.
This has been the trend historically too, as over the past 5 seasons, games in the final round of fixtures have all seen over 3 goals scored per game overall.
This season, 3.26 goals have been scored per game, pointing to more goals than ever on the final day.
While the Champions League spots are decided, and relegation all but so, there’s still room for dramatics in the title race.
It’s firmly in Manchester City’s hands but they require a win to secure it. Therefore, you can’t go too wrong with Arsenal or City players for GW38.
With no future fixture runs to analyse, upcoming doubles, or any other need for forward planning, managers should simply devote their transfers to this week’s top picks.
GW38 Transfers
Defenders are best to avoid for transfers due to the higher likelihood of goals being scored this week. So, with the title not yet guaranteed, the top transfers in this week are Man City and Arsenal attackers.
We’ve seen all season how effective these assets are, with the two teams top for goals scored.
The likes of Haaland, Foden and De Bruyne will host West Ham at the Etihad. West Ham have conceded the most goals in the league after the now-relegated Sheffield United and Burney, and all but going down, Luton. They’ve also conceded in every game since GW20.
City, however, have scored 4 or more goals in 5 of the last 6 league games with each of Haaland, Foden and De Bruyne producing double-digit hauls in that time.
Saka and Havertz are the standouts for Arsenal. While Everton have been exceptional defensively of late, Arsenal will need to win to have any chance of winning the league.
Havertz is in brilliant form, returning in each of the last 4 games, while Saka’s the Gunners’ top scorer and has the benefit of penalties.
All the players above could hugely reward managers in GW38 and are great transfers in.
Mohammed Salah
[player_card name=”Salah”]
Aside from the likely dramatics in the title race, Liverpool’s match against Wolves is Jurgen Klopp’s final game in charge of the club.
While they can’t win any silverware this term, his players will no doubt be looking to send him off on a high.
Despite struggling for consistent returns of late, Salah is still the 4th highest-scoring midfielder in FPL, emphasising how good an asset he can be on his day.
His xGI per 90 of 0.99 is top among midfielders for the season and our clean sheet odds gives Wolves only a 5% chance of not conceding.
This bodes well for managers who bring the Egyptian in, ahead of a game where Liverpool have the added incentive of wanting to send their long-time manager off in impressive fashion.
Michael Olise
[player_card name=”Olise”]
Olise is playing to his best and has 16 and 12 point returns in the past 2 gameweeks to show for it.
He’s putting up an xGI of 0.71 per 90 which is higher than other popular assets such as Foden and Havertz.
His Palace side haven’t lost in the past 6 games, beating Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United in that time.
While opponents, Aston Villa, have been formidable this season, they have now secured Champions League football. This only gives Palace an increased chance of winning.
With Olise in such electric form, expect him to maintain this and pose problems for the Villa defence.
GW38 Captaincy
Erling Haaland
[player_card name=”Haaland”]
Haaland is the best option for the armband this week.
He put 2 goals past Spurs in GW37 in their 2-0 win to take his goal tally to 27 for the season.
He has a great fixture in West Ham at home, who have been one of the poorest defences across the campaign and have just a 4% chance of a clean sheet according to our clean sheet odds.
His xGI of 1.13 is also the highest in the league which bodes well for returns on the final day.
While Son has a good fixture in Sheffield United, Spurs’ failure to qualify for the Champions League means they have little to play for.
Arsenal assets and other City assets both need a win to have a chance of winning the league but it’s hard to look past the league’s top scorer against one of the most vulnerable defences.
GW38 Differentials
Trent Alexander-Arnold
[player_card name=”Alexander-Arnold”]
While historically not the ideal gameweek for clean sheets, the attacking threat Alexander-Arnold offers makes him a great differential this week.
He’s scored 3 times and assisted a further 5 despite missing much of the season with injury and his xGI of 0.36 is among the highest of defenders this season.
Wolves have the 5th lowest clean sheet record in the league and have very little to play for in the final game with a mid-table finish secured.
With clean sheets likely a rarity in the final week, and how great Alexander-Arnold can be going forward, it could be the perfect opportunity to back the most expensive defender in the game with arguably the best attacking potential.
Leandro Trossard
[player_card name=”Trossard”]
The Arsenal winger seems to have nailed down a starting position in Arteta’s starting eleven.
He scored the winner in Arsenal’s 1-0 victory over Manchester United in GW37 to add to his 12 for the season and make it 4 goals in his last 5 games in the league.
As good as Everton have been in defence of late, getting a result at the Emirates is a big ask in what is a must-win game for Arsenal.
Trossard scored the winner in the reverse fixture and is in the form to do the same in GW38.