Premier League Winner, Top 4 & Relegation Probabilities
Every club’s chance of winning the title, finishing in the top four or six, and being relegated — shown as a percentage rather than as odds.
Title Favourites
Arsenal▲11.754%
Man City▲0.422%
Chelsea▲1.111%
Liverpool▼7.95%
Expected Top 4
- Arsenal▲7.496%
- Man City▲4.081%
- Chelsea▲9.964%
- Liverpool▼5.453%
Expected Relegation
Coventry▲10.365%
Hull▼13.062%
Ipswich▼4.449%
Fulham▲15.030%
| Arsenal | 54.4%▲ | 95.7%▲ | 99.7%▲ | 0.0%▼ |
| Man City | 21.8%▲ | 80.8%▲ | 91.5%▲ | 6.5%▲ |
| Chelsea | 10.9%▲ | 64.4%▲ | 86.1%▲ | 0.2%▼ |
| Liverpool | 5.2%▼ | 53.3%▼ | 77.5%▼ | 0.2%▲ |
 Man Utd | 4.3%▼ | 35.8%▼ | 63.7%▼ | 0.4%▲ |
 Tottenham | 1.0%▼ | 9.9%▼ | 23.1%▼ | 4.7%▲ |
 Newcastle | 0.6%▲ | 8.2%▲ | 22.4%▲ | 3.8%▼ |
 Aston Villa | 0.4%▼ | 7.6%▼ | 19.2%▼ | 4.7%▲ |
 Brentford | 0.2% | 13.1%▲ | 31.0%▲ | 1.9%▼ |
 Brighton | 0.2%▼ | 12.3%▲ | 28.8%▲ | 2.4%▼ |
 Bournemouth | 0.2% | 4.7%▲ | 12.6%▲ | 5.8%▼ |
 Leeds | 0.2% | 4.7%▲ | 12.6%▲ | 6.5%▼ |
 Everton | 0.2% | 3.8% | 8.4%▼ | 7.5%▲ |
 Nottingham Forest | 0.1% | 2.9% | 10.1%▼ | 10.3%▲ |
 Crystal Palace | 0.1% | 1.0%▼ | 4.8%▼ | 19.6%▲ |
 Sunderland | 0.1% | 0.8%▼ | 3.9%▼ | 19.6%▼ |
| Fulham | 0.1% | 0.6%▼ | 2.5%▼ | 29.6%▲ |
| Ipswich | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8%▼ | 48.9%▼ |
| Hull | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8%▼ | 62.3%▼ |
| Coventry | 0.0% | 0.2%▼ | 0.7%▼ | 65.2%▲ |
Updated today · arrows show the change over the past week
How these are calculated
The percentages come from published market prices rather than from a model of ours, so they reflect where money has gone rather than what we expect to happen.
They are also adjusted so each column adds up. Converting prices straight to percentages produces a total well above 100 — the difference is the margin built into every price. Left in, it would tell you every club is likelier to go down than it really is. Each figure is divided by the column total and scaled to the number of places available: one title, four Champions League spots, three relegation places.
Using this for FPL
The relegation column is most useful for deciding who to targetagainst. A side near the bottom concedes more and keeps fewer clean sheets, so facing them is where the points are.
That holds for most of the season, and then stops holding. In the closing weeks a club still fighting to stay up plays like it — the same side that was the easiest fixture in October becomes one of the harder ones in April, because survival is worth more to them than it is to the team they are facing.
Clubs already safe, or already down, go the other way and start resting people. Our fixture difficulty ratings account for form but not for motivation, which is the gap this page fills at the end of a season.