FPL Price Changes & Predictor

Every player has a progress figure: how far they are towards a price rise (a positive percentage) or a fall (a negative one). At 100% or more, the player is expected to change at the next update. The predicted figure is where that progress is expected to be at midnight.

Progress and predictions come from FPL’s official game data, read every 10 minutes — the most accurate source there is, because it reflects the actual transfers being made. On top of it we measure how fast each player is moving per hour (the arrows: one up to 0.1 percentage points an hour, two up to 0.4, three at 0.4 or more), chart the last 48 hours, keep a nightly record of how often our predictions came true, and add the fixtures, projected points and team news you need to decide whether to buy now or wait.

The colours follow our fixture difficulty scale: green above 90%, light green above 70%, yellow from −70% to 70%, orange down to −90%, and red below −90%.

A projection is a likelihood, not a certainty. Transfers keep moving right up to the update, so a player projected at 95% can still miss and one at 80% can still make it. Players marked as locked won’t change price before the day shown.

Price changes in FPL happen daily at 00:00 UK time.

Any changes appear in the latest changes at the top of this page and in the history table above.

The prices of players in Fantasy Premier League are important. Essentially, they determine the players you can bring into your FPL team.

Invariably, the best players are the most expensive. There are exceptions to this and it is identifying these supposed bargains that pay dividends in FPL.

While player prices are relatively static — they don’t often change by more than a couple of million — they do frequently change. A player’s price can move by at most £0.1m in a night, and by up to £0.3m in a gameweek.

You retain the profit on any positive price changes within your squad — at least some of it.

When you sell a player in FPL, you keep half the profit. If the total profit on a player is an odd increment, i.e. £0.5m, then you’ll keep £0.2m of that as it is rounded down.

Read More: FREE Fantasy Premier League Points Predictor (Updated Ahead of Every Gameweek)

A lot of Fantasy Premier League managers pay close attention to their squad value as this enables you to buy more expensive players as the season progresses.

There is a correlation between high team values and success.

Price changes are determined by the number of managers that pick a particular player.

More specifically, they are determined by a player’s net transfers. A high number of transfers in could increase their price and a high number of transfers out, decrease it.

The exact formula has never been published. FPL’s progress percentage is the closest thing to it: it measures each player against their own threshold, which scales with ownership. A player owned by 0.5% needs far fewer net transfers to move than one owned by 40%, which is why the predictor ranks players by progress rather than by raw transfer count.

Player prices can change on consecutive days. Generally, they don’t though, unless there is an unusual influx (or outflux) of transfers either way.