Simple Fantasy Premier League Tips
Thousands of hours of complex analysis will be completed by FPL managers ahead of the 2018/19 season. This will be to try and gain that perhaps critical advantage over other FPL managers. There's no doubt that digging deep into previous season statistics, analysing each team's fixtures and predicting player positions/whether they are starting will bring its advantages. However, often, FPL managers overlook the simplest and easiest to follow Fantasy Premier League tips. Here are some basic Fantasy Premier League tips that if you follow will allow even casual FPL managers to have a successful season.
1. Starting Players for the Win
It seems an obvious requirement to have players starting but it's amazing how often FPL managers take risks on players who are far from certain to start. Of course we can rarely be 100% sure a player will start but it is important to be confident the majority of, if not all of, your team will start. If they don't the problem is two fold. Firstly, they will have less minutes on the pitch which means less points. Potentially they may not play at all which theoretically results in an inferior player being substituted on. Secondly, the player who isn't starting will inevitably be transferred out causing a decrease in your team value. An example of a player who falls into the far from certain to start category is Marcus Rashford. He presents great value as a Man Utd forward for £7.0m but
only if he starts. Players starting in your FPL team is arguably the most important of all Fantasy Premier League tips.
2. World Cup
Even Premier League footballers can suffer with fatigue. A hard Premier League season followed by a World Cup means they are not going to be as fresh as they could be or will be rested. Players that have featured in the latter stages of the World Cup may be granted extra rest before the season begins. This means they may not feature at all during the first Gameweeks or come off earlier than normal. Romelu Lukaku, Paul Pogba, Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Jan Vertonghen and Jesse Lingard all fall into this category. This isn't to say they definitely won't start though. For example Romelu Lukaku is a favorite of Jose Mourinho and despite his long season and World Cup may go straight into the Man Utd Gameweek 1 lineup.
3. Past FPL Success
Another seemingly obvious criteria that can get ignored is to make sure picked players have had previous FPL success. There are times when the player may be worth the risk, Mohamed Salah and Pierre Emerick Aubameyang are two players that come to mind. Most of the time though previous success is the best indicator a player will pick up points.
4. Pre-Season Form Means Little
It can be tempting to bring in a player who has done well in pre-season. However, previous evidence suggests there is little correlation between a good pre-season and an equally fruitful Premier League campaign. This is because pre-season games are often against lesser skilled opponents and played at a completely different intensity. One example is Newcastle's Joselu. He scored four pre-season goals before the 2017/18 season and ended scoring four goals during the entire Premier League season. As mentioned above a far better indicator is past FPL success.
5. Avoid Promoted Teams
Much like pre-season form it can be tempting to pick a player who is coming off a stellar Championship season. Another Newcastle player presents a good example of this point. Dwight Gayle scored 23 Championship goals in 2016/17 but could only find the net 6 times in the Premier League last season. This rule doesn't always prove true as of course with any sample there are exceptions. Glenn Murray scored 23 Championship goals and followed it with an impressive tally of 12 Premier League goals. Generally though it is sensible to assume Championship statistics won't carry over to the Premier League. Newly promoted teams are among the most likely to be relegated which means fewer goals scored and more conceded.
6. Fixtures vs Form
Fixtures Can't be Ignored
There are contradicting opinions on whether form or fixtures should take precedence in Fantasy Premier League. It can be easy to see several good fixtures for a top team and invest in their players. The logic behind this makes sense as statistically, top teams will score more goals against lower opposition. Therefore it is not only perfectly reasonable to see a good run of fixtures and get in players to take advantage of them but imperative to do so.
Form is Real
The other opinion to this is that form plays a greater role in FPL returns than fixtures. The proof behind this opinion is harder to offer but FPL managers can attest to this being a factor. A lot of the time players score points in spurts and this shows there is validity to the form theory.
Conclusion
Our take is that fixtures have to take priority. Football match odds are there for a reason and therefore if you ignore them in the long-term you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. On the form side of things there's no doubt it's a real factor. Form doesn't last forever but a player that is clearly in form shouldn't be removed solely on the fact they may have a difficult fixture. You can check out the fixture difficulty of each team for the first 10 Gameweeks here:
/fixture-analysis/
7. Europa League Qualification
New rules have come in this season which sees that the top 4 teams in the Premier League don't have to go through a Champions League qualification round. This isn't true for the Europa League however. Burnley who finished 7th last year need to go through qualifying to get into the Europa League proper. They face matches against Aberdeen on 26/07 and 02/08. If they are successful over the two legs they face another two legged tie. The first leg would take place midweek before Gameweek 1 with the second leg taking place midweek before Gameweek 2. Clearly this adds a strain to Burnley which may not only affect form in the Premier League but their starting lineup also. As a result extra caution needs to be taken when considering Burnley players, despite their good fixtures to start the season.
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