What Makes a Good Goalkeeper in FPL?
By Pratyush Yadav ·
For one reason or another, goalkeepers often get overlooked in Fantasy Premier League.
They shouldn't though, because the point difference between selecting the right and wrong one is substantial.
Goalkeepers earn FPL points through clean sheets, saves, and bonus (via the bonus points system).
In this article, we aim to see which, and if any, of these metrics is the best indicator of goalkeeper performance in FPL.
We will look at the past three FPL seasons to identify which of these metrics demonstrates the strongest correlation with a goalkeeper's points.
These will be based on R-squared values which essentially show how much the variable (the stat) correlates to, in this case, goalkeeper points.
Numbers close to 1 show a high correlation whereas numbers below 0.8 (given the natural correlations of these variables) would show a less than expected correlation.
Saves
The number of saves made by a goalkeeper has consistently displayed a strong correlation with their FPL points.
However, diving deeper into the data, we encounter some irregularities.
Take Ederson, for instance, whose FPL points didn't directly correlate with his number of saves.
- 2020/21 - Points (160), Saves (66)
- 2021/22 - Points (155), Saves (60)
- 2022/23 - Points (121), Saves (46)
This irregularity in points versus saves also exists with other goalkeepers.
For example, Mendy (144 points, 57 saves), Meslier (106 points, 143 saves), Krul (90 points, 106 saves), and Neto (93 points, 100 saves) across various seasons.
These instances illustrate the existence of exceptions, particularly for goalkeepers from top-table teams.
Shot-saving stats may be influenced by their teams' dominance resulting in fewer shots faced and hence fewer opportunities to make saves.
Clean Sheets
An R-squared value of 0.92 for the 2022/23 season and a remarkable 0.95 for the total dataset highlight the impact of clean sheets on a goalkeeper's FPL performance.
R-squared values for clean sheets are close to those of saves, reinforcing a natural connection between these metrics.
Irregularities in clean sheet correlations are a rare occurrence, but they do exist:
- Johnstone (2020/21) - Points (140), CS (6)
- Fabianski (2021/22) - Points (136), CS (8)
- Leno (2022/23) - Points (142), CS (8)
Bonus Points
While bonus points contribute to a goalkeeper's point accumulation, they do not apply as strong an influence as saves and clean sheets.
Bonus points add value but other metrics play a more significant role.
Bonus points don't always match up precisely with BPS, so GK points vs GK bonus was never going to be a perfect correlation.
Irregularities in the bonus points correlation are frequent, and the variations are too many to list.
However, an observation arises when we look at the past 3 seasons' top-ranked goalkeepers.
In each of the last three seasons, the highest scoring goalkeeper secured the highest number of bonus points, among GKs.
However, this is more of an interesting takeaway rather than anything to base decisions on.
Bonus Points System (BPS)
The data unquestionably speaks for itself: goalkeeper points and their BPS is a near perfect correlation.
The striking consistency across seasons, with values of 0.98, 0.97, and 0.98, respectively, leaves no room for doubt – the BPS's influence on GK's success is as close as it gets.
Irregularities within the bonus points system are virtually non-existent, highlighting the system's stability and predictability.
In the 2020/21 and 2021/22 season, the highest point scoring goalkeeper also had the highest BPS, too.
Furthermore, in 2022/23 the 2nd highest point scoring goalkeeper had the most BPS (two behind the top).
Conclusion
The bonus points system emerges as the metric with the strongest correlation to a goalkeeper's FPL success.
BPS displays a nearly perfect linear correlation, with an exceptional R-squared value of 0.99 across the entirety of the dataset.
This cements its significance as the metric with the strongest correlation to a goalkeeper's FPL success.
However, it's essential to recognize the multifaceted nature of goalkeeper points in FPL and the role of other factors such as team strength, fixtures, and what the starting lineup will be.
Notably, the correlation between clean sheets and FPL points is striking, as evidenced by a significant R-squared value of 0.95.