Analysing the Importance of Bonus Points in FPL
By Pratyush Yadav ·
Bonus points are a big portion of the overall points a player scores in Fantasy Premier League.
In this article we're diving deep into them to uncover important stats that can make a big difference in determining which players to pick.
As FPL managers, we want to understand how these bonus points work, why they matter, and how they can help our teams succeed.
We'll explore data from the last few seasons, carefully looking for correlations between bonus points and different factors like the bonus points system (BPS).
The data will show how certain positions, top players, and performances influence the number of bonus points players earn.
Contents:
- How Do Bonus Points and BPS Work?
- Are Bonus Points Important in FPL?
- Correlation Between Bonus Points and BPS
- Which Position Gets the Most Bonus Points and BPS?
How Do Bonus Points and BPS Work?
In each match, three players are awarded a total of 6 bonus points based on their BPS performance.
These points are earned by players who positively contribute to a match. This includes successful tackles, key passes, interceptions, clearances, and recoveries.
The full criteria of BPS can be found here.
In every match, the player who finishes 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for BPS will get:
- 1st place: 3 points
- 2nd place: 2 points
- 3rd: 1 point
In the event of a tie on BPS, two lots of the higher points will be awarded.
For example, if Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne get 50 BPS each and then Phil Foden gets 46 BPS, then bonus points are distributed as follows:
- Haaland: 3 points
- De Bruyne: 3 points
- Foden: 1 point
Are Bonus Points Important in FPL?
Bonus points hold tremendous importance in FPL, significantly impacting a player's overall score.
Over the last three seasons (2020/21 to 2022/23) 94,587 points have been scored.
Of them, 7,334 were bonus points. Therefore, 7.8% of all points scored were bonus.
However, that includes all players which means a lot of them had little chance of getting bonus (low-picked players, late substitutes).
Instead, if we take the top 20 point scorers in each of the last three seasons, we find that 11.7% of their points were from bonus.
So, when it comes to players you're more likely to pick, bonus points become even more important.
Deeper Analysis
To thoroughly assess the importance of bonus points in FPL, we conducted an in-depth analysis using data from the past three seasons for the top 20 FPL scorers.
2020/21:
2021/22:
2022/23:
Check out our detailed player stats from past FPL seasons, too.
Our objective was to understand the contribution of bonus points to their overall fantasy score.
Our analysis revealed a consistent theme of bonus points accounting for a substantial portion of the total fantasy score for the majority of players.
As stated above, on average, bonus points contributed to 11.7% of the total fantasy score for the top 20 FPL scorers across the past three seasons.
However, it is interesting to note that certain players experienced higher reliance on bonus points during specific seasons. Notable instances include:
- Harry Kane (2022/2023): 18.3%
- Ivan Toney (2022/2023): 19.2%
- Kieran Trippier (2022/2023): 19.7%
- Kevin De Bruyne (2021/2022): 16.8%
- Cristiano Ronaldo (2021/2022): 18.2%
Correlation Between Bonus Points and BPS
The Bonus Points System serves as the foundation for awarding bonus points in FPL.
It employs a complex algorithm that takes into account various statistical metrics to assess a player's overall impact during a match.
BPS factors in actions such as goals, assists, successful passes, tackles, clearances, shots on target, and more.
To identify if there is any kind of correlation between BPS and BP, we analyzed data from the past two seasons for every position and looked for trends or outliers.
Goalkeepers
At first glance, it becomes evident that goalkeepers had a significant variation in trend when it comes to bonus points and BPS over the last two seasons.
The scatter plot shows many diversions from the linear trend, indicating that their performances are more complex to predict solely based on BPS.
For instance, players like Alisson Becker outperformed in BP during the 2021/22 season (15 BP, 782 BPS) but underperformed in BP during the 2022/23 season (15 BP, 824 BPS).
Similarly, Aaron Ramsdale outperformed in BP in 2021/22 (14 BP, 641 BPS) but underperformed in BP in 2022/23 (9 BP, 664 BPS).
Jose Sa also showcased inconsistency by underperforming in BP during 2021/22 (11 BP, 722 BPS) but overperforming in BPS during 2022/23 (18 BP, 683 BPS).
Elsewhere, Vincente Guaita and Nick Pope show some linear relation between BPS and BP.
The most likely reason for this is variance. There will be some matches when goalkeepers score well on BPS, perhaps keeping a clean sheet.
However, if a forward also has a good match the data shows they'll be more likely to get the bonus points.
Defenders
The majority of defenders lie above the linear trend line, indicating their ability to accumulate a significant number of BPS points.
However, they may not always convert these BPS points into bonus as effectively as one would expect.
Kieran Trippier's exceptional performance with Newcastle is worth mentioning here, where he accumulated 39 BP from 941 BPS.
To put that into perspective, the second-highest player in terms of BPS was Trent Alexander-Arnold with only 21 BP.
Another crucial observation is that most defenders who overperformed in BP when compared to BPS are fullbacks, showcasing their attacking contributions and potential to earn bonus points.
Midfielders
Similar to defenders, midfielders also show a trend where many players can grab a lot of BPS points but struggle to convert them into BP effectively.
Interestingly, a significant number of midfielders lie below the trend line, outperforming in BP, indicating their ability to accumulate bonus points.
Premium midfielders have consistently shown their ability to outperform in BP compared to their BPS.
For instance, Martin Odegaard in the 2022/23 season had 30 BP and 813 BPS, Kevin De Bruyne in the 2021/22 season had 33 BP and 732 BPS, and Mohamed Salah in the 2021/22 season had 29 BP and 756 BPS.
These examples highlight how premium midfielders are capable of delivering high fantasy returns.
The higher end of the chart mainly consists of midfielders heavily involved in their team's attacking end.
Forwards
Forwards exhibit a steady linear correlation between BPS and BP, with some slight irregularities.
Notably, not many forwards cross the 600 BPS benchmark, with only 3 in the 2022/23 season and 2 in the 2021/22 season.
In contrast, other positions like goalkeepers, defenders, and midfielders have a significant number of players above that threshold.
This showcases the efficiency of forwards in converting their BPS into BP.
This could be because of the BPS scoring criteria where forwards get 24 BPS for every goal.
Conclusion
While BPS serves as a foundation for awarding bonus points in Fantasy Premier League, the correlation between BPS and BP varies among different positions.
Defenders and midfielders don't show a clear trend between the two metrics.
Meanwhile, goalkeepers and forwards exhibit more consistent correlations. (Validated through comparison of r-squared values).
An R-Squared value shows how well the model predicts the outcome of the dependent variable.
R-Squared values range from 0 to 1. An R-Squared value of 0 means that the model explains or predicts 0% of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
| Season 2021/22 | R2 value |
|---|---|
| Goalkeepers | 0.79 |
| Defenders | 0.63 |
| Midfielders | 0.69 |
| Forwards | 0.87 |
| Season 2022/23 | R2 value |
|---|---|
| Goalkeepers | 0.92 |
| Defenders | 0.63 |
| Midfielders | 0.74 |
| Forwards | 0.93 |
Given the intrinsic link between BP and BPS, a minimum R2 value of 0.5 is expected.
Which Position Gets the Most Bonus Points and BPS?
To gain deeper insights into the distribution of bonus points and BPS among different positions in FPL, we looked at the data from the top 20 FPL scorers for the past three seasons.
Our objective was to identify trends and patterns related to the accumulation of bonus points and BPS by position.
Findings
Bonus Points Rankings
When it comes to bonus points, forwards and midfielders have been dominant among the top 20 scorers.
- 2020/21: 7 FWDs, 5 MIDs
- 2021/22: 7 FWDs, 7 MIDs
- 2022/23: 5 FWDs, 9 MIDs
Respectively, forwards and midfielders accounted for 40 of the 60 entries over the three-year period.
On the other hand, goalkeepers were represented only 6 times in the top 20 scorers (4 appearances in 2020/21 and 2 in 2022/23).
BPS Rankings
In contrast to the bonus points rankings, goalkeepers and defenders took the lead in the BPS rankings.
- 2020/21: 7 GKs, 8 DEFs
- 2021/22: 7 GKs, 8 DEFs
- 2022/23: 8 GKs, 5 DEFs
Goalkeepers and defenders accounted for 43 of the 60 entries over the three-year period.
This emphasizes the significance of defensive contributions and clean sheets in earning BPS points for players in these positions.
Forwards only appeared 4 times (1 in 2020/21, 1 in 2021/22, and 2 in 2022/23).
Conclusion
There is a clear and unsurprising positive correlation between points and bonus points.
To support this statement we looked at the data of how many players who were ranked in the top 20/10/5 (bonus points) were also ranked in the top 20/10/5 (total Points).
| Season | Top 20 | Top 10 | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| 2021-22 | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| 2022-23 | 80% | 70% | 60% |
This correlation is validated even more after doing a scan of the top 3 players (total points) and their rankings for bonus points from each season.
| 2020-21 | TP | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Fernandes | 1 | 2 |
| Kane | 2 | 1 |
| Salah | 3 | 13 |
| 2021-22 | TP | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Salah | 1 | 3 |
| Son | 2 | 6 |
| TAA | 3 | 2 |
| 2022-23 | TP | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 1 | 2 |
| Kane | 2 | 1 |
| Salah | 3 | 9 |
One factor to consider is the highest scoring players will naturally have the most goals and assists.
This means their points will put them below the trend line when compared to BPS.
The dominance of goalkeepers and defenders in BPS rankings shows they are able to score highly on a more consistent basis.
Despite this, forwards score more bonus points than them because their BPS fluctuates more on a game-to-game basis.
Based on our analysis, it is evident that bonus points play a vital role in Fantasy Premier League.
However, the data indicates you should focus on the BP metric as opposed to BPS when selecting players.